Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 34.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 73¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 86%
$29.5K
-$2.28
72¢ → 72.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 72¢ | $9.6K | $9.7K | +$67.57 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
 EdZacharyCTR | Underavg 28¢ | $8.4K | $8.2K | -$149.97 | 40% 94-142 (236) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 72¢ | $6.7K | $6.7K | +$46.62 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
HI hi774c | Overavg 72¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$17.77 | 51% 4818-4540 (9358) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 72¢ | $3.0K | $2.2K | +$15 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $80.64 | $81.2 | +$0.56 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $36 | $26.1 | +$0.18 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
Invested
$9,621.03
Value
$9.7K
PnL
+$67.57
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
EdZacharyCTRInvested
$8,399.97
Value
$8.2K
PnL
-$149.97
Record
40%
94-142 (236)
Invested
$6,712.56
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$46.62
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$2,559.42
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$17.77
Record
51%
4818-4540 (9358)
VeryLucky888Invested
$3,000
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$15
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$80.64
Value
$81.2
PnL
+$0.56
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$36
Value
$26.1
PnL
+$0.18
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.