Spread: Patriots (-7.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (17%) · Dolphins at 55¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Dolphins
6
Dolphins 17%
$18.7K
$51.83
Research grade
NeutralDolphins at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xaBea08725590a4C6Ae7c8E63214C9628BbC772AE-1781431873018 | Dolphinsavg 55.8¢ | $10.0K | $10.0K | +$41.54 | 44% 81-103 (184) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Patriotsavg 46¢ | $2.8K | $2.7K | -$90.3 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
 TKD44CTR | Patriotsavg 44¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$0 | 48% 156-166 (322) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Patriotsavg 43¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$86.02 | 53% 301-270 (571) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR | Patriotsavg 44.5¢ | $449.7 | $454.5 | +$4.8 | 53% 11428-9958 (21386) |
SL slimjoeCTR | Patriotsavg 43¢ | $420.11 | $429.88 | +$9.77 | 51% 6432-6108 (12540) |
Invested
$9,992.29
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$41.54
Record
44%
81-103 (184)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,773.69
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$90.3
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
TKD44CTRInvested
$2,560.36
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
156-166 (322)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$2,465.81
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$86.02
Record
53%
301-270 (571)
Invested
$449.7
Value
$454.5
PnL
+$4.8
Record
53%
11428-9958 (21386)
Invested
$420.11
Value
$429.88
PnL
+$9.77
Record
51%
6432-6108 (12540)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.