Spread: Patriots (-14.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (78%) · Dolphins at 100¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 1

Patriots<1¢Dolphins>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 78%

Total Value

$18.9K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 99.7¢

+36% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Patriots0%

Dolphins100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins7 traders

Total Value$16.9K

Total Shares18,400

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Patriots2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares7,217

Combined PnL+$92.54

Dolphins — 78%Patriots — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Dolphinsavg 73.9¢	$11.1K	$14.4K	+$3.3K	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Patriotsavg 26.3¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$83.25	50% 7127-7172 (14299)
JU justaluckydude	Dolphinsavg 69.5¢	$825	$766.11	-$58.89	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Dolphinsavg 74¢	$740	$675	-$65	53% 5696-5032 (10728)
0xheavy888	Dolphinsavg 73.5¢	$579.94	$635.93	+$55.99	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
TO topdogbigboi	Dolphinsavg 65¢	$222.16	$285.88	+$63.71	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Dolphinsavg 73¢	$146	$145	-$1	54% 4944-4172 (9116)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 26¢	$37.18	$46.48	+$9.3	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
GH ghorrock<$100	Dolphinsavg 63.3¢	$11.05	$13.2	+$2.15	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

VeryLucky888

Dolphins

Invested

$11,086.5

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

Forecastication2CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,862.01

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$83.25

Record

50%

7127-7172 (14299)

justaluckydude

Dolphins

Invested

$825

Value

$766.11

PnL

-$58.89

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Dolphins

Invested

$740

Value

$675

PnL

-$65

Record

53%

5696-5032 (10728)

0xheavy888

Dolphins

Invested

$579.94

Value

$635.93

PnL

+$55.99

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

topdogbigboi

Dolphins

Invested

$222.16

Value

$285.88

PnL

+$63.71

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Dolphins

Invested

$146

Value

$145

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

4944-4172 (9116)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$37.18

Value

$46.48

PnL

+$9.3

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

ghorrock<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$11.05

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$2.15

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.