Patriots vs. Dolphins
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (75%) · Patriots at 76¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Patriots
4
Patriots 75%
$49.1K
$255.94
76¢ → 75.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralPatriots at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Patriotsavg 76¢ | $24.2K | $24.0K | -$159.1 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 EdZacharyCTR | Dolphinsavg 24¢ | $20.6K | $21.1K | +$429.84 | 40% 94-142 (236) |
BA Bagwell306 | Patriotsavg 76¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$20 | 58% 4067-2890 (6957) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Patriotsavg 75.1¢ | $975.97 | $981.18 | +$5.21 | 65% 1758-962 (2720) |
Invested
$24,187.76
Value
$24.0K
PnL
-$159.1
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
EdZacharyCTRInvested
$20,632.14
Value
$21.1K
PnL
+$429.84
Record
40%
94-142 (236)
Invested
$3,040
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$20
Record
58%
4067-2890 (6957)
Invested
$975.97
Value
$981.18
PnL
+$5.21
Record
65%
1758-962 (2720)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.