Spread: Lions (-7.5)

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (13%) · Patriots at 73¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Lions28¢Patriots72¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 13%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

-$25.89

Research grade

NeutralPatriots at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions28%

Patriots73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Patriots1 trader

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares6,899

Combined PnL+$0

Lions7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares7,801

Combined PnL-$25.89

Patriots — 13%Lions — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLions 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLions 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Lions 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Patriotsavg 72¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0	48% 451-495 (946)
nigiri99CTR	Lionsavg 28¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$23.68	50% 727-719 (1446)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Lionsavg 28¢	$442.05	$442.05	-$0	37% 1293-2176 (3469)
OD OddstormCTR	Lionsavg 28¢	$163.37	$163.37	-$0	36% 137-246 (383)
VE VenusianCTR	Lionsavg 28¢	$100.49	$98.7	-$1.79	38% 1301-2146 (3447)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Lionsavg 28¢	$95.07	$95.07	-$0	38% 1276-2118 (3394)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Lionsavg 28.2¢	$51.9	$51.58	-$0.31	38% 1303-2129 (3432)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Lionsavg 28.5¢	$5.7	$5.6	-$0.1	48% 3854-4218 (8072)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Patriots

Invested

$4,967.27

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

451-495 (946)

nigiri99CTR

Lions

Invested

$1,326.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$23.68

Record

50%

727-719 (1446)

LightParadoxCTR

Lions

Invested

$442.05

Value

$442.05

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

1293-2176 (3469)

OddstormCTR

Lions

Invested

$163.37

Value

$163.37

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

137-246 (383)

VenusianCTR

Lions

Invested

$100.49

Value

$98.7

PnL

-$1.79

Record

38%

1301-2146 (3447)

LimousinCTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$95.07

Value

$95.07

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

1276-2118 (3394)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$51.9

Value

$51.58

PnL

-$0.31

Record

38%

1303-2129 (3432)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

3854-4218 (8072)

Research grade

NeutralPatriots at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLions 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLions 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Lions 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.