Spread: Patriots (-3.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (25%) · Lions at 72¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Patriots28¢Lions72¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 25%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$6.61

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Patriots28%

Lions72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions2 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares6,676

Combined PnL+$6.59

Patriots6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares9,099

Combined PnL+$0.01

Lions — 25%Patriots — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Lions) and the top 1000 (6 on Patriots) disagree here.

whalePatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPatriots 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedLions 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Patriots 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Lionsavg 71¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$0	53% 1793-1578 (3371)
nigiri99CTR	Patriotsavg 29¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$0	50% 722-711 (1433)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Lionsavg 71¢	$936.42	$943.01	+$6.59	48% 447-488 (935)
VE VenusianCTR	Patriotsavg 29¢	$276.23	$276.23	+$0	38% 1296-2132 (3428)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 29¢	$93.62	$93.62	+$0	38% 1297-2114 (3411)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 29¢	$32.48	$32.48	+$0	38% 1272-2102 (3374)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 29¢	$15.67	$15.67	+$0	37% 1288-2159 (3447)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 28¢	$0.78	$0.79	+$0.01	48% 3837-4187 (8024)

VeryLucky888

Lions

Invested

$3,803.36

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1793-1578 (3371)

nigiri99CTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,219.95

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

722-711 (1433)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Lions

Invested

$936.42

Value

$943.01

PnL

+$6.59

Record

48%

447-488 (935)

VenusianCTR

Patriots

Invested

$276.23

Value

$276.23

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1296-2132 (3428)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$93.62

Value

$93.62

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1297-2114 (3411)

LimousinCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$32.48

Value

$32.48

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1272-2102 (3374)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$15.67

Value

$15.67

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1288-2159 (3447)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.79

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

3837-4187 (8024)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Lions) and the top 1000 (6 on Patriots) disagree here.

whalePatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPatriots 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedLions 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Patriots 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.