Spread: Patriots (-1.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (43%) · Lions at 62¢ · $33K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Lions
7
Lions 43%
$33.1K
$15.54
60¢ → 62¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLions at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBank | Lionsavg 60¢ | $20.1K | $20.3K | +$167.61 | 42% 621-853 (1474) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Patriotsavg 40¢ | $12.5K | $12.3K | -$156.25 | 57% 3682-2767 (6449) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Patriotsavg 39.1¢ | $359.2 | $363.16 | +$3.96 | 48% 3952-4304 (8256) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Lionsavg 60¢ | $46.07 | $46.45 | +$0.38 | 34% 465-896 (1361) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Patriotsavg 40¢ | $18 | $17.78 | -$0.22 | 50% 2177-2197 (4374) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Patriotsavg 39¢ | $3.25 | $3.29 | +$0.04 | 48% 471-508 (979) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Lionsavg 60¢ | $3 | $3.03 | +$0.02 | 50% 747-737 (1484) |
Invested
$20,113.3
Value
$20.3K
PnL
+$167.61
Record
42%
621-853 (1474)
Invested
$12,500
Value
$12.3K
PnL
-$156.25
Record
57%
3682-2767 (6449)
Invested
$359.2
Value
$363.16
PnL
+$3.96
Record
48%
3952-4304 (8256)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$46.07
Value
$46.45
PnL
+$0.38
Record
34%
465-896 (1361)
Invested
$18
Value
$17.78
PnL
-$0.22
Record
50%
2177-2197 (4374)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.29
PnL
+$0.04
Record
48%
471-508 (979)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$3
Value
$3.03
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
747-737 (1484)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.