Amon-Ra St. Brown: Anytime Touchdown

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 66¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 15

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$29.1K

Combined PnL

$3.1K

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 66¢

+43% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares23,640

Combined PnL-$62.14

No4 traders

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares28,819

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MD mde4life1986CTR	Yesavg 54¢	$12.4K	$12.4K	+$0.03	9% 7-70 (77)
CUTJALENHURTS	Noavg 46¢	$7.3K	$10.5K	+$3.2K	52% 2694-2508 (5202)
FO forecastication4	Noavg 46¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$0	36% 201-360 (561)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 47.8¢	$381.9	$367.55	-$14.35	30% 486-1128 (1614)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 54¢	$191.47	$120.56	-$70.92	40% 2676-3963 (6639)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$64.26	$68.04	+$3.78	32% 41-87 (128)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$44.64	$48.21	+$3.57	7% 28-402 (430)
JO jole24CTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$36.35	$37.75	+$1.4	40% 26-39 (65)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100	Noavg 45¢	$26.31	$26.9	+$0.58	59% 531-362 (893)

mde4life1986CTR

Yes

Invested

$12,419.96

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$0.03

Record

7-70 (77)

CUTJALENHURTS

Invested

$7,342.33

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

52%

2694-2508 (5202)

forecastication4

Invested

$5,520

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

201-360 (561)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$381.9

Value

$367.55

PnL

-$14.35

Record

30%

486-1128 (1614)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$191.47

Value

$120.56

PnL

-$70.92

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.26

Value

$68.04

PnL

+$3.78

Record

32%

41-87 (128)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.64

Value

$48.21

PnL

+$3.57

Record

28-402 (430)

jole24CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.35

Value

$37.75

PnL

+$1.4

Record

40%

26-39 (65)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100

Invested

$26.31

Value

$26.9

PnL

+$0.58

Record

59%

531-362 (893)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.