Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 40.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
$85.53
52¢ → 54.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IC ic4cream | Overavg 52¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$91.65 | 1% 4-440 (444) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 50.8¢ | $219.68 | $227.87 | +$8.18 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.8¢ | $144.75 | $155.33 | +$10.58 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47¢ | $74.93 | $72.54 | -$2.39 | |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $159.63 | $151.31 | -$8.31 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $46.8 | $49.05 | +$2.25 | 68% 1595-745 (2340) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $4.23 | $4.1 | -$0.14 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.73 | +$0.08 | 51% 299-291 (590) |
Invested
$1,906.32
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$91.65
Record
1%
4-440 (444)
Invested
$219.68
Value
$227.87
PnL
+$8.18
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Both legs:
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$159.63
Value
$151.31
PnL
-$8.31
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
Invested
$46.8
Value
$49.05
PnL
+$2.25
Record
68%
1595-745 (2340)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$4.1
PnL
-$0.14
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0.08
Record
51%
299-291 (590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.