Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Packers, while the market favors Vikings (51%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Packers (-3.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (29%) · Packers at 49¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Packers49¢Vikings51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$35.7

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 49¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Packers49%

Vikings51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,619

Combined PnL-$149.6

Vikings5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,310

Combined PnL+$113.89

Packers — 29%Vikings — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVikings 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Packersavg 50.7¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$148.4	0% 0-325 (325)
VeryLucky888	Vikingsavg 49¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	+$93.3	50% 262-258 (520)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Vikingsavg 49.3¢	$802.63	$577.78	+$4.82	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 49.3¢	$316.81	$334.05	+$27.45
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 52.5¢	$266.36	$243.73	-$22.64
SN SnakeBall	Vikingsavg 50¢	$489.9	$509.49	+$19.6	47% 149-168 (317)
PA Pan9X<$100	Vikingsavg 48.4¢	$50.31	$33.92	+$0.9	49% 440-464 (904)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Packersavg 51¢	$20.4	$19.2	-$1.2	68% 1593-744 (2337)
nigiri99<$100	Vikingsavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.6	+$0	52% 128-119 (247)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100	Vikingsavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.6	+$0.1	10% 6-55 (61)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Packers

Invested

$2,826.21

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$148.4

Record

0-325 (325)

VeryLucky888

Vikings

Invested

$2,058.97

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$93.3

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$802.63

Value

$577.78

PnL

+$4.82

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Vikings$316.8149.3¢+$27.45

Packers$266.3652.5¢-$22.64

SnakeBall

Vikings

Invested

$489.9

Value

$509.49

PnL

+$19.6

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

Pan9X<$100

Vikings

Invested

$50.31

Value

$33.92

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

RLWGCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$20.4

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$1.2

Record

68%

1593-744 (2337)

nigiri99<$100

Vikings

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100

Vikings

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

10%

6-55 (61)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVikings 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.