Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Packers, while the market favors Vikings (65%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Vikings (-2.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (62%) · Packers at 35¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Vikings65¢Packers35¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 62%

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$348.49

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 35¢

-43% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 65%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings65%

Packers35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares8,848

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Packers8 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares11,688

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Vikings — 38%Packers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Vikingsavg 39.9¢	$3.4K	$5.0K	+$1.6K	59% 1183-828 (2011)
TA takeormakeCTR	Packersavg 65¢	$4.8K	$3.7K	$-1.1K	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
RN1CTR	Packersavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
38 38791873984189CTR	Packersavg 61.8¢	$862.86	$592.82	-$134.54	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
GA Gaditima	Vikingsavg 36.8¢	$92.02	$125	+$32.98	49% 400-411 (811)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Packersavg 50¢	$102.65	$102.5	-$0.15	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Packersavg 63¢	$107.21	$85.09	-$22.12	39% 234-370 (604)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Packersavg 57.2¢	$59.44	$51.99	-$7.45	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Packersavg 52.8¢	$42.25	$33.2	-$9.05	51% 572-546 (1118)
NO NotJump<$100	Vikingsavg 47¢	$28.5	$30	+$1.5	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
AN Anon455<$100	Vikingsavg 33¢	$9.85	$14.93	+$5.07	49% 486-502 (988)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Packersavg 49¢	$5.19	$5.3	+$0.11	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
DO DolphinBaller<$100	Vikingsavg 38¢	$2.66	$3.5	+$0.84	18% 26-122 (148)

primm

Vikings

Invested

$3,398.49

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

takeormakeCTR

Packers

Invested

$4,763.62

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

RN1CTR

Packers

Invested

$1,307.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

38791873984189CTR

Packers

Invested

$862.86

Value

$592.82

PnL

-$134.54

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Gaditima

Vikings

Invested

$92.02

Value

$125

PnL

+$32.98

Record

49%

400-411 (811)

6512395314597884CTR

Packers

Invested

$102.65

Value

$102.5

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

BoomLaLaCTR

Packers

Invested

$107.21

Value

$85.09

PnL

-$22.12

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$59.44

Value

$51.99

PnL

-$7.45

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$42.25

Value

$33.2

PnL

-$9.05

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

NotJump<$100

Vikings

Invested

$28.5

Value

$30

PnL

+$1.5

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Anon455<$100

Vikings

Invested

$9.85

Value

$14.93

PnL

+$5.07

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$5.19

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

DolphinBaller<$100

Vikings

Invested

$2.66

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.84

Record

18%

26-122 (148)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 35%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 65%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.