Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 46.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$1.7K
-$1.36
53¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GM gmpm2 | Underavg 53¢ | $893.43 | $885 | -$8.43 | 53% 351-311 (662) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $760.28 | $760.28 | +$8.09 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $71.91 | $71.91 | -$0.76 | 50% 7122-7163 (14285) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $24.44 | $24.44 | -$0.26 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $6.36 | $6.36 | +$0 | 54% 3099-2669 (5768) |
Invested
$893.43
Value
$885
PnL
-$8.43
Record
53%
351-311 (662)
Invested
$760.28
Value
$760.28
PnL
+$8.09
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$71.91
Value
$71.91
PnL
-$0.76
Record
50%
7122-7163 (14285)
Invested
$24.44
Value
$24.44
PnL
-$0.26
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
Invested
$6.36
Value
$6.36
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3099-2669 (5768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.