Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Vikings, while the market favors Lions (59%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Lions (-2.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (100%) · Vikings at 42¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Vikings
4
Vikings 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$20.6
42¢ → 41.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralVikings at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HerdoniaCTR | Vikingsavg 42¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$18.43 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Vikingsavg 42¢ | $157.92 | $156.04 | -$1.88 | 62% 4201-2576 (6777) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR | Vikingsavg 42¢ | $105 | $103.75 | -$1.25 | 53% 11582-10087 (21669) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Vikingsavg 42¢ | $94.36 | $93.82 | -$0.54 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
| └ Vikings leg | Vikingsavg 42¢ | $65.94 | $65.16 | -$0.78 | |
| └ Lions leg | Lionsavg 58¢ | $28.42 | $28.67 | +$0.24 | |
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 42¢ | $80.57 | $80.57 | +$0.96 | 54% 2337-2025 (4362) |
Invested
$1,547.76
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$18.43
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$157.92
Value
$156.04
PnL
-$1.88
Record
62%
4201-2576 (6777)
Invested
$105
Value
$103.75
PnL
-$1.25
Record
53%
11582-10087 (21669)
Invested
$94.36
Value
$93.82
PnL
-$0.54
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Both legs:
Invested
$80.57
Value
$80.57
PnL
+$0.96
Record
54%
2337-2025 (4362)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.