Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Vikings, while the market favors Lions (63%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Vikings vs. Lions
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (25%) · Vikings at 38¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Vikings
4
Vikings 25%
1 arb excluded
$16.5K
$98.92
Research grade
NeutralVikings at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100 | Vikingsavg 37¢ | $7.9K | $8.0K | +$95.03 | 72% 6820-2615 (9435) |
| └ Vikings leg | Vikingsavg 37¢ | $5.7K | $5.8K | +$77 | |
| └ Lions leg | Lionsavg 62¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$18.03 | |
TA takeormakeCTR | Vikingsavg 37¢ | $5.7K | $5.8K | +$77.35 | 53% 4274-3735 (8009) |
GM gmpm2 | Lionsavg 62¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$10.87 | 53% 349-311 (660) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Lionsavg 62¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$10.11 | 65% 1752-960 (2712) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Lionsavg 60.8¢ | $71.7 | $72.29 | +$0.58 | 58% 42597-30998 (73595) |
Invested
$7,933.19
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$95.03
Record
72%
6820-2615 (9435)
Both legs:
Invested
$5,724.22
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$77.35
Record
53%
4274-3735 (8009)
Invested
$1,347.47
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$10.87
Record
53%
349-311 (660)
Invested
$1,253.31
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$10.11
Record
65%
1752-960 (2712)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$71.7
Value
$72.29
PnL
+$0.58
Record
58%
42597-30998 (73595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.