Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 40.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 59¢ · $330 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$329.67
-$12.34
51.9¢ → 58.5¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Underavg 52¢ | $136.34 | $153.38 | +$17.04 | 54% 514-436 (950) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $125.85 | $108.81 | -$17.04 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $65.21 | $52.42 | -$12.79 | 38% 209-341 (550) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $6.34 | $6.83 | +$0.49 | 48% 927-1003 (1930) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $5.33 | $5.76 | +$0.43 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $2.94 | $2.46 | -$0.48 | 49% 435-456 (891) |
Invested
$136.34
Value
$153.38
PnL
+$17.04
Record
54%
514-436 (950)
Invested
$125.85
Value
$108.81
PnL
-$17.04
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$65.21
Value
$52.42
PnL
-$12.79
Record
38%
209-341 (550)
Invested
$6.34
Value
$6.83
PnL
+$0.49
Record
48%
927-1003 (1930)
Invested
$5.33
Value
$5.76
PnL
+$0.43
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$2.46
PnL
-$0.48
Record
49%
435-456 (891)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.