Spread: Colts (-2.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (50%) · Colts at 59¢ · $594 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Colts
6
Colts 50%
$594.2
$19.46
53.8¢ → 59¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralColts at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IC ic4cream | Coltsavg 53.8¢ | $312.95 | $343.03 | +$30.08 | 1% 4-440 (444) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Dolphinsavg 46¢ | $192.28 | $171.38 | -$20.9 | 48% 937-1010 (1947) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Dolphinsavg 41¢ | $492 | $72.57 | +$10.23 | 50% 260-256 (516) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Coltsavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.95 | +$0.25 | 68% 1592-743 (2335) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Dolphinsavg 46¢ | $2.76 | $2.46 | -$0.3 | 49% 438-463 (901) |
 0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492<$100 | Coltsavg 51¢ | $1.71 | $1.81 | +$0.1 | 0% 0-325 (325) |
Invested
$312.95
Value
$343.03
PnL
+$30.08
Record
1%
4-440 (444)
Invested
$192.28
Value
$171.38
PnL
-$20.9
Record
48%
937-1010 (1947)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$492
Value
$72.57
PnL
+$10.23
Record
50%
260-256 (516)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0.25
Record
68%
1592-743 (2335)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$2.46
PnL
-$0.3
Record
49%
438-463 (901)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492<$100Invested
$1.71
Value
$1.81
PnL
+$0.1
Record
0%
0-325 (325)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.