Spread: Colts (-10.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (60%) · Dolphins at 73¢ · $53K held · ends Nov 15

Colts28¢Dolphins72¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 60%

Total Value

$53.2K

Combined PnL

$81.13

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 72.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Colts28%

Dolphins73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins6 traders

Total Value$37.3K

Total Shares51,421

Combined PnL-$373.77

Colts4 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares57,741

Combined PnL+$454.9

Dolphins — 60%Colts — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Dolphinsavg 73¢	$20.1K	$19.9K	-$137.52	59% 531-362 (893)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Coltsavg 26.7¢	$15.1K	$15.6K	+$426.62	11% 28-223 (251)
VeryLucky888	Dolphinsavg 73.7¢	$11.1K	$10.9K	-$175	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
38 38791873984189	Dolphinsavg 73¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$18.32	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Dolphinsavg 73¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$15	46% 39-46 (85)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Dolphinsavg 73.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$27.6	48% 469-508 (977)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Coltsavg 26¢	$131.31	$143.93	+$12.63	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
LI LimousinCTR	Coltsavg 26¢	$95.62	$104.81	+$9.19	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Coltsavg 26¢	$67.12	$73.57	+$6.45	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
PA Pan9X<$100	Dolphinsavg 73¢	$47.04	$46.71	-$0.32	50% 2174-2194 (4368)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Dolphins

Invested

$20,078.02

Value

$19.9K

PnL

-$137.52

Record

59%

531-362 (893)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Colts

Invested

$15,141.26

Value

$15.6K

PnL

+$426.62

Record

11%

28-223 (251)

VeryLucky888

Dolphins

Invested

$11,050

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$175

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

38791873984189

Dolphins

Invested

$2,675.45

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$18.32

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Dolphins

Invested

$2,190

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$15

Record

46%

39-46 (85)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Dolphins

Invested

$1,613.17

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$27.6

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

LightParadoxCTR

Colts

Invested

$131.31

Value

$143.93

PnL

+$12.63

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

LimousinCTR

Colts

Invested

$95.62

Value

$104.81

PnL

+$9.19

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$67.12

Value

$73.57

PnL

+$6.45

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

Pan9X<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$47.04

Value

$46.71

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.