Spread: 49ers (-9.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (38%) · 49ers at 53¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8

49ers53¢Raiders47¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 38%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

-$3.78

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers53%

Raiders48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares8,223

Combined PnL+$51.21

Raiders5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,720

Combined PnL-$54.98

49ers — 38%Raiders — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRaiders 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Raiders 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	49ersavg 52¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$21.65	49% 788-810 (1598)
ST stackingsatsCTR	Raidersavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$20	48% 347-374 (721)
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603	49ersavg 51.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$18.2	49% 407-423 (830)
VeryLucky888CTR	Raidersavg 47.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$30	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
TI timezonewarrior	49ersavg 51¢	$391.18	$402.54	+$11.36	45% 111-137 (248)
38 38791873984189CTR	Raidersavg 49¢	$122.5	$117.5	-$3.75	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Raidersavg 48¢	$96	$94	-$1	54% 5090-4308 (9398)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Raidersavg 48¢	$22.5	$22.03	-$0.23	53% 11759-10241 (22000)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

49ers

Invested

$2,251.12

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$21.65

Record

49%

788-810 (1598)

stackingsatsCTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,920

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$20

Record

48%

347-374 (721)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603

49ers

Invested

$1,623.44

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$18.2

Record

49%

407-423 (830)

VeryLucky888CTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,544.81

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$30

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

timezonewarrior

49ers

Invested

$391.18

Value

$402.54

PnL

+$11.36

Record

45%

111-137 (248)

38791873984189CTR

Raiders

Invested

$122.5

Value

$117.5

PnL

-$3.75

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$96

Value

$94

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

5090-4308 (9398)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.03

PnL

-$0.23

Record

53%

11759-10241 (22000)

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

49ers

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRaiders 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Raiders 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.