Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raiders, while the market favors 49ers (52%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 49ers (-8.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (75%) · Raiders at 49¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 8

49ers52¢Raiders48¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Raiders

Consensus Traders

Raiders 75%

Total Value

$33.2K

Combined PnL

$93.18

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 48.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors 49ers 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers52%

Raiders49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers3 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares30,199

Combined PnL-$152.94

Raiders9 traders

Total Value$17.6K

Total Shares36,363

Combined PnL+$246.13

49ers — 25%Raiders — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+55 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrRaiders 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raiders 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	49ersavg 52¢	$15.6K	$15.4K	-$150	53% 680-594 (1274)
VE VenusianCTR	Raidersavg 48¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$56.91	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
VeryLucky888CTR	Raidersavg 47¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$96.02	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Raidersavg 48¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$31.63	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
LI LimousinCTR	Raidersavg 48¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$27.58	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Raidersavg 48¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$25	48% 4749-5247 (9996)
nigiri99CTR	Raidersavg 48¢	$738.24	$745.93	+$7.69	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	49ersavg 53¢	$104.41	$101.46	-$2.95	49% 808-841 (1649)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Raidersavg 47¢	$91.74	$92.71	+$1.02	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Raidersavg 47¢	$8.48	$8.57	+$0.09	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raidersavg 47¢	$7.26	$7.46	+$0.2	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	49ersavg 51¢	$1.04	$1.05	+$0.01	64% 2142-1184 (3326)

monkeymashingkeyboard

49ers

Invested

$15,599.98

Value

$15.4K

PnL

-$150

Record

53%

680-594 (1274)

VenusianCTR

Raiders

Invested

$5,462.22

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$56.91

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

VeryLucky888CTR

Raiders

Invested

$3,011.15

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$96.02

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Raiders

Invested

$3,036.92

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$31.63

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

LimousinCTR

Raiders

Invested

$2,646.77

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$27.58

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

Bagwell306CTR

Raiders

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$25

Record

48%

4749-5247 (9996)

nigiri99CTR

Raiders

Invested

$738.24

Value

$745.93

PnL

+$7.69

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

49ers

Invested

$104.41

Value

$101.46

PnL

-$2.95

Record

49%

808-841 (1649)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$91.74

Value

$92.71

PnL

+$1.02

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$8.48

Value

$8.57

PnL

+$0.09

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$7.26

Value

$7.46

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

darkumbreon88<$100

49ers

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.01

Record

64%

2142-1184 (3326)

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors 49ers 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+55 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrRaiders 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raiders 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.