Spread: 49ers (-3.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (78%) · 49ers at 71¢ · $54K held · ends Nov 8

49ers71¢Raiders29¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$53.6K

Combined PnL

$33.36

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 70.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers71%

Raiders30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers7 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares19,863

Combined PnL-$92.05

Raiders2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares11,388

Combined PnL+$125.41

49ers — 78%Raiders — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 49ers) and the top 1000 (5 on Raiders) disagree here.

whale49ers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrRaiders 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-picked49ers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raiders 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816ARB<$100	49ersavg 73¢	$22.4K	$22.3K	-$118.87	50% 585-578 (1163)
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 73¢	$14.0K	$13.7K	-$288
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 27.9¢	$8.4K	$8.5K	+$169.13
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	49ersavg 71.9¢	$13.4K	$13.6K	+$125.41	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 71.9¢	$10.1K	$10.1K	-$59.64
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 27¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$185.04
VeryLucky888	49ersavg 72¢	$7.2K	$7.2K	-$50	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
38 38791873984189	49ersavg 71¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	-$24.49	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
nigiri99CTR	Raidersavg 28.4¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$125.24	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
AN Anon455	49ersavg 71¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$10	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
NM NM-P	49ersavg 72¢	$360	$357.5	-$2.5	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-P	49ersavg 72¢	$360	$357.5	-$2.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	49ersavg 71¢	$284	$282	-$2	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
0xheavy888<$100	49ersavg 71¢	$79.52	$78.96	-$0.56	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raidersavg 28.6¢	$7.43	$3.24	+$0.16	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816ARB<$100

49ers

Invested

$22,380.82

Value

$22.3K

PnL

-$118.87

Record

50%

585-578 (1163)

Both legs:

49ers$14,015.9773¢-$288

Raiders$8,363.327.9¢+$169.13

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

49ers

Invested

$13,441.42

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$125.41

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Both legs:

49ers$10,112.5571.9¢-$59.64

Raiders$3,327.1927¢+$185.04

VeryLucky888

49ers

Invested

$7,200

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$50

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

38791873984189

49ers

Invested

$4,833.34

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$24.49

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

nigiri99CTR

Raiders

Invested

$3,230.97

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$125.24

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Anon455

49ers

Invested

$1,420

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$10

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

NM-P

49ers

Invested

$360

Value

$357.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-P

49ers

Invested

$360

Value

$357.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

49ers

Invested

$284

Value

$282

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

0xheavy888<$100

49ers

Invested

$79.52

Value

$78.96

PnL

-$0.56

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$7.43

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0.16

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 49ers) and the top 1000 (5 on Raiders) disagree here.

whale49ers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrRaiders 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-picked49ers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raiders 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.