Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 50.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$979.05

Total Shares1,065

Combined PnL+$438.08

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares7,962

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 48.1¢	$513.77	$929.3	+$415.53	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 47¢	$2.0K	$808.88	$-1.2K	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.1K	$167.93	-$911.62	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 43¢	$110	$159.88	+$49.88	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 47¢	$23.5	$46	+$22.5	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
DR DreamwireCTR	Underavg 53¢	$547.82	$18.49	-$529.33	83% 2683-538 (3221)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 37¢	$3.7	$3.75	+$0.05	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$26.5	$0.03	-$26.48	59% 46944-33223 (80167)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$513.77

Value

$929.3

PnL

+$415.53

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$2,000

Value

$808.88

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$1,079.55

Value

$167.93

PnL

-$911.62

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$110

Value

$159.88

PnL

+$49.88

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$23.5

Value

$46

PnL

+$22.5

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

DreamwireCTR

Under

Invested

$547.82

Value

$18.49

PnL

-$529.33

Record

83%

2683-538 (3221)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.5

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$26.48

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.