Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 48.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 100¢

+99% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,922

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Under2 traders

Total Value$336.35

Total Shares585

Combined PnL-$2.79

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 50.1¢	$2.2K	$4.2K	+$2.0K	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 58¢	$331.27	$328.41	-$2.86	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 42¢	$119.07	$120.49	+$1.42	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 83¢	$58.93	$67.45	+$8.52	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Overavg 49¢	$32.05	$65.37	+$33.32	83% 2683-538 (3221)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 42¢	$36.96	$37.4	+$0.44	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Overavg 97¢	$57.83	$32.01	-$25.82	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$7.87	$7.94	+$0.07	54% 17338-14559 (31897)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,194.55

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$331.27

Value

$328.41

PnL

-$2.86

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$119.07

Value

$120.49

PnL

+$1.42

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$58.93

Value

$67.45

PnL

+$8.52

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Dreamwire<$100

Over

Invested

$32.05

Value

$65.37

PnL

+$33.32

Record

83%

2683-538 (3221)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$36.96

Value

$37.4

PnL

+$0.44

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

UpTheBlues<$100

Over

Invested

$57.83

Value

$32.01

PnL

-$25.82

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.87

Value

$7.94

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.