Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 46.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 50¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$22.4K
$305.45
48¢ → 49.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $9.2K | $9.5K | +$288.47 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Underavg 51¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | -$52.67 | 72% 6827-2621 (9448) |
SB sbimbg | Underavg 51¢ | $5.1K | $5.1K | +$0 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$70.11 | 50% 7122-7165 (14287) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $83.66 | $83.66 | -$0 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $47.78 | $47.78 | -$0.47 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
Invested
$9,231
Value
$9.5K
PnL
+$288.47
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$5,371.83
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$52.67
Record
72%
6827-2621 (9448)
Invested
$5,100
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$2,243.52
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$70.11
Record
50%
7122-7165 (14287)
Invested
$83.66
Value
$83.66
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$47.78
Value
$47.78
PnL
-$0.47
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.