Spread: Jets (-9.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (100%) · Raiders at 79¢ · $41K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Raiders
5
Raiders 100%
$40.8K
-$452.88
79.5¢ → 78.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralRaiders at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Raidersavg 79.7¢ | $37.8K | $29.7K | -$437.56 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Raidersavg 79¢ | $7.9K | $7.9K | +$0 | 47% 2510-2807 (5317) |
 VeryLucky888 | Raidersavg 79¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$14.94 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Raidersavg 79¢ | $790 | $790 | +$0 | 53% 5632-4972 (10604) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Raidersavg 79.5¢ | $62.8 | $62.41 | -$0.39 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
Invested
$37,805.69
Value
$29.7K
PnL
-$437.56
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$7,900
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2510-2807 (5317)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,379.59
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$14.94
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$790
Value
$790
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5632-4972 (10604)
Invested
$62.8
Value
$62.41
PnL
-$0.39
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.