Spread: Jets (-7.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (20%) · Raiders at 78¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Raiders
5
Raiders 20%
$2.7K
$23.85
Research grade
NeutralRaiders at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 scootergene | Raidersavg 76¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$43.04 | 54% 371-315 (686) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Jetsavg 24¢ | $229.05 | $214.73 | -$14.32 | 58% 41092-29767 (70859) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Jetsavg 23¢ | $210.2 | $205.63 | -$4.57 | 53% 337-302 (639) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 23¢ | $11.83 | $11.57 | -$0.26 | — |
SL slimjoeCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 23¢ | $2.6 | $2.6 | -$0.06 | 51% 6464-6130 (12594) |
scootergeneInvested
$2,180.71
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$43.04
Record
54%
371-315 (686)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$229.05
Value
$214.73
PnL
-$14.32
Record
58%
41092-29767 (70859)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$210.2
Value
$205.63
PnL
-$4.57
Record
53%
337-302 (639)
Invested
$11.83
Value
$11.57
PnL
-$0.26
Record
—
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
6464-6130 (12594)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.