Spread: Jets (-2.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (20%) · Raiders at 53¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Raiders
5
Raiders 20%
$23.9K
-$231.12
Research grade
NeutralRaiders at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Raidersavg 53¢ | $21.0K | $20.8K | -$197.81 | 53% 4278-3736 (8014) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Jetsavg 47¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$33.05 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 47¢ | $24.43 | $24.17 | -$0.26 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 47¢ | $20.21 | $20.21 | -$0 | 50% 3947-3930 (7877) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Jetsavg 47¢ | $9.4 | $9.4 | -$0 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
Invested
$20,967.83
Value
$20.8K
PnL
-$197.81
Record
53%
4278-3736 (8014)
Invested
$3,106.99
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$33.05
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$24.43
Value
$24.17
PnL
-$0.26
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$20.21
Value
$20.21
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
3947-3930 (7877)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.4
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.