Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Raiders (51%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Jets (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (67%) · Jets at 50¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Jets
6
Jets 67%
$7.5K
-$23.07
49.1¢ → 49.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJets at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Raiders 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 EdZacharyCTR | Jetsavg 49¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$29.63 | 40% 94-140 (234) |
MA MAGATheeStallion | Raidersavg 51¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$39.21 | 58% 261-192 (453) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Jetsavg 49¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$0 | 72% 6823-2615 (9438) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Jetsavg 50¢ | $674.5 | $661.01 | -$13.49 | 50% 7121-7157 (14278) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 49¢ | $35.28 | $35.28 | +$0 | 57% 29203-21595 (50798) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Raidersavg 50¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 53% 4278-3736 (8014) |
EdZacharyCTRInvested
$2,904.08
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$29.63
Record
40%
94-140 (234)
Invested
$1,999.71
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$39.21
Record
58%
261-192 (453)
Invested
$1,907.07
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
6823-2615 (9438)
Invested
$674.5
Value
$661.01
PnL
-$13.49
Record
50%
7121-7157 (14278)
Invested
$35.28
Value
$35.28
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
29203-21595 (50798)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
4278-3736 (8014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.