Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raiders, while the market favors Jets (53%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Raiders vs. Jets

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (67%) · Raiders at 48¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1

Raiders48¢Jets52¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Raiders

Consensus Traders

Raiders 67%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$153.54

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 47.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raiders48%

Jets53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raiders6 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares10,276

Combined PnL-$164.09

Jets3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,714

Combined PnL+$10.54

Raiders — 67%Jets — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Raidersavg 47¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$22.15	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
RO roldyCTR	Raidersavg 51¢	$3.1K	$1.9K	-$200.02	55% 1404-1163 (2567)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	Jetsavg 49.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.75	49% 771-789 (1560)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Raidersavg 47¢	$508.54	$513.95	+$5.41	53% 299-268 (567)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Raidersavg 47¢	$287.33	$293.57	+$6.24	53% 11424-9958 (21382)
0X 0xaBea08725590a4C6Ae7c8E63214C9628BbC772AE-1781431873018	Jetsavg 51¢	$163.67	$160.47	-$3.21	44% 81-103 (184)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Raidersavg 48¢	$110.93	$112.09	+$1.16	65% 1649-894 (2543)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard<$100	Jetsavg 50¢	$53	$53	+$0	54% 568-482 (1050)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Raidersavg 47¢	$13.27	$14.4	+$0.99	51% 6431-6105 (12536)

VeryLucky888CTR

Raiders

Invested

$2,081.68

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$22.15

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

roldyCTR

Raiders

Invested

$3,059.96

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$200.02

Record

55%

1404-1163 (2567)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

Jets

Invested

$1,130.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.75

Record

49%

771-789 (1560)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Raiders

Invested

$508.54

Value

$513.95

PnL

+$5.41

Record

53%

299-268 (567)

BoomLaLaCTR

Raiders

Invested

$287.33

Value

$293.57

PnL

+$6.24

Record

53%

11424-9958 (21382)

0xaBea08725590a4C6Ae7c8E63214C9628BbC772AE-1781431873018

Jets

Invested

$163.67

Value

$160.47

PnL

-$3.21

Record

44%

81-103 (184)

darkumbreon88CTR

Raiders

Invested

$110.93

Value

$112.09

PnL

+$1.16

Record

65%

1649-894 (2543)

monkeymashingkeyboard<$100

Jets

Invested

$53

Value

$53

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

568-482 (1050)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$13.27

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$0.99

Record

51%

6431-6105 (12536)

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.