Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (71%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Chargers vs. Rams: O/U 46.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 30¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 1

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.5K

Combined PnL

$665.5

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 29.5¢

-38% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares27,692

Combined PnL+$8.4

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,800

Combined PnL+$657.1

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48¢	$6.6K	$6.8K	+$210.87	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 64.1¢	$2.6K	$3.2K	+$642.2	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Overavg 48¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$90	53% 615-541 (1156)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.18	54% 3405-2950 (6355)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$852.71	$844.35	-$8.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$753.37	$776.92	+$23.54
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$46.88	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$355.99	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$652	$668.88	+$17.99	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
PR primm	Underavg 48¢	$237.7	$250.08	+$12.38	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 51¢	$105.57	$104.54	-$1.03	54% 3099-2669 (5768)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$68.24	$65.51	-$2.73	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$34.72	$35.5	+$0.79	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 52¢	$33.8	$34.5	+$3.55	50% 7981-8012 (15993)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$21.03	$15.27	+$0.59	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$6,587.64

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$210.87

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$2,593.2

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$642.2

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,880

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$90

Record

53%

615-541 (1156)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,606.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.18

Record

54%

3405-2950 (6355)

Both legs:

Under$852.7151¢-$8.36

Over$753.3748¢+$23.54

0x0A77exmmCTR

Over

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$46.88

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$1,553.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$355.99

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$652

Value

$668.88

PnL

+$17.99

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

primm

Under

Invested

$237.7

Value

$250.08

PnL

+$12.38

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$105.57

Value

$104.54

PnL

-$1.03

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.24

Value

$65.51

PnL

-$2.73

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.72

Value

$35.5

PnL

+$0.79

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$33.8

Value

$34.5

PnL

+$3.55

Record

50%

7981-8012 (15993)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.03

Value

$15.27

PnL

+$0.59

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.