Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Chargers vs. Rams: O/U 44.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 46¢ · $399 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$399.08
-$31.88
49.4¢ → 45.5¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 49.2¢ | $270.76 | $236.44 | -$24.45 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
 heyboy800<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $54 | $55 | +$1.5 | 61% 971-608 (1579) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 50.7¢ | $54.13 | $48.05 | -$5.55 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $36.75 | $33.75 | -$3.37 | 53% 453-396 (849) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $25.85 | $25.85 | +$0 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$270.76
Value
$236.44
PnL
-$24.45
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
heyboy800<$100Invested
$54
Value
$55
PnL
+$1.5
Record
61%
971-608 (1579)
Invested
$54.13
Value
$48.05
PnL
-$5.55
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$36.75
Value
$33.75
PnL
-$3.37
Record
53%
453-396 (849)
Invested
$25.85
Value
$25.85
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.