Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Chargers, while the market favors Rams (51%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Rams (-6.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Chargers (80%) · Chargers at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Chargers
5
Chargers 80%
$2.4K
$0.4
49.8¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralChargers at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Rams 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | Chargersavg 50¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$12.5 | 54% 2337-2025 (4362) |
 VeryLucky888 | Ramsavg 50¢ | $852.94 | $794.8 | +$9.2 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Chargersavg 49¢ | $233.58 | $235.96 | +$2.38 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Chargersavg 49¢ | $152.97 | $154.53 | +$1.56 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Chargersavg 50¢ | $24 | $23.76 | -$0.24 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
Invested
$1,250
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$12.5
Record
54%
2337-2025 (4362)
VeryLucky888Invested
$852.94
Value
$794.8
PnL
+$9.2
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$233.58
Value
$235.96
PnL
+$2.38
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$152.97
Value
$154.53
PnL
+$1.56
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$24
Value
$23.76
PnL
-$0.24
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.