Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chargers, while the market favors Rams (73%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Chargers vs. Rams

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Chargers (50%) · Chargers at 28¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1

Chargers28¢Rams72¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Chargers

Consensus Traders

Chargers 50%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$15.55

Smart Money Entry

27¢ → 27.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidChargers at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Rams 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Chargers28%

Rams73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chargers2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,364

Combined PnL+$18.01

Rams2 traders

Total Value$367.6

Total Shares507

Combined PnL-$2.46

Chargers — 50%Rams — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2CTR	Chargersavg 27¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$19.79	50% 7049-7061 (14110)
NI niceqqqqq3	Ramsavg 73¢	$500	$362.5	-$2.5	39% 30-47 (77)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Chargersavg 27¢	$98.03	$109.81	-$1.78	54% 3362-2907 (6269)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Ramsavg 72¢	$5.06	$5.1	+$0.04	65% 1736-949 (2685)

Forecastication2CTR

Chargers

Invested

$1,068.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$19.79

Record

50%

7049-7061 (14110)

niceqqqqq3

Rams

Invested

$500

Value

$362.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

39%

30-47 (77)

HerdoniaCTR

Chargers

Invested

$98.03

Value

$109.81

PnL

-$1.78

Record

54%

3362-2907 (6269)

darkumbreon88<$100

Rams

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.04

Record

65%

1736-949 (2685)

Research grade

AvoidChargers at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Rams 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chargers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.