Spread: Ravens (-4.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ravens (56%) · Ravens at 51¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 17

Ravens51¢Chargers49¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ravens

Consensus Traders

Ravens 56%

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

-$5.97

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralRavens at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ravens51%

Chargers50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ravens5 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares16,948

Combined PnL-$69.6

Chargers4 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares15,673

Combined PnL+$63.62

Ravens — 56%Chargers — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Ravens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Chargers) and the top 1000 (8 on Ravens) disagree here.

sharpRavens 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRavens 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ravens 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Ravensavg 50.9¢	$8.1K	$8.0K	-$65.87	49% 272-287 (559)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Chargersavg 49¢	$5.7K	$5.8K	+$58.27	56% 3926-3105 (7031)
VeryLucky888CTR	Chargersavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.44	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
38 38791873984189CTR	Chargersavg 50¢	$494.5	$484.61	-$9.89	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
GC GC-P	Ravensavg 50¢	$237.49	$237.49	+$0	43% 577-770 (1347)
SH shovelingdigging	Ravensavg 51¢	$200	$196.08	-$3.92	— 9-10 (19)
NM NM-P	Ravensavg 50¢	$125	$125	+$0	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
ST stackingsats<$100	Ravensavg 49¢	$9.8	$10	+$0.2	12% 28-197 (225)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Chargersavg 50¢	$10	$9.8	-$0.2	50% 2215-2229 (4444)

Pwaddler

Ravens

Invested

$8,050.54

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$65.87

Record

49%

272-287 (559)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Chargers

Invested

$5,710.64

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$58.27

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

VeryLucky888CTR

Chargers

Invested

$1,489.19

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.44

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

38791873984189CTR

Chargers

Invested

$494.5

Value

$484.61

PnL

-$9.89

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

GC-P

Ravens

Invested

$237.49

Value

$237.49

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

shovelingdigging

Ravens

Invested

$200

Value

$196.08

PnL

-$3.92

Record

—

9-10 (19)

NM-P

Ravens

Invested

$125

Value

$125

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

stackingsats<$100

Ravens

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.2

Record

12%

28-197 (225)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$10

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

Research grade

NeutralRavens at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Ravens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Chargers) and the top 1000 (8 on Ravens) disagree here.

sharpRavens 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRavens 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ravens 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ravens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.