Chargers vs. Ravens
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Ravens (50%) · Ravens at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Ravens
6
Ravens 50%
$1.1K
-$12.24
66.4¢ → 66.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralRavens at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Ravens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Ravensavg 66.5¢ | $999.56 | $762.63 | -$9.74 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
RA rabbitfoot1CTR | Chargersavg 34¢ | $314.26 | $305.02 | -$9.24 | 1% 5-377 (382) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Ravensavg 66¢ | $32.97 | $33.22 | +$0.25 | 48% 673-715 (1388) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Chargersavg 31.4¢ | $96.29 | $12.67 | +$6.21 | 52% 464-433 (897) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Ravensavg 66¢ | $8.96 | $9.24 | +$0.28 | 22% 33-119 (152) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Chargersavg 33¢ | $2.11 | $2.11 | +$0 | 55% 626-515 (1141) |
Invested
$999.56
Value
$762.63
PnL
-$9.74
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
Invested
$314.26
Value
$305.02
PnL
-$9.24
Record
1%
5-377 (382)
Invested
$32.97
Value
$33.22
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
673-715 (1388)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$96.29
Value
$12.67
PnL
+$6.21
Record
52%
464-433 (897)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$9.24
PnL
+$0.28
Record
22%
33-119 (152)
Invested
$2.11
Value
$2.11
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
626-515 (1141)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.