Rams vs. Commanders: O/U 48.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (31%) · Under at 52¢ · $90K held · ends Nov 8

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$89.6K

Combined PnL

$15.87

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 51.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$43.6K

Total Shares83,844

Combined PnL-$39.19

Over9 traders

Total Value$43.3K

Total Shares89,608

Combined PnL+$55.06

Under — 31%Over — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 52¢	$36.4K	$36.0K	-$350	53% 668-585 (1253)
GM gmpm2CTR	Overavg 48¢	$20.2K	$20.4K	+$210	53% 372-326 (698)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 48¢	$13.3K	$13.4K	+$138.55	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50¢	$6.5K	$6.8K	+$316.05	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
PW PwaddlerCTR	Overavg 50.7¢	$6.4K	$6.0K	-$313.44	49% 458-484 (942)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 48¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$28.83	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$24.74	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$20.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.8¢	$564.22	$571.99	-$4.02
AN Anon455	Underavg 52¢	$656.65	$650.34	-$6.31	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 49.1¢	$490.68	$475.09	-$15.59	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 47¢	$212.16	$218.93	+$6.77	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$154.82	$54.62	+$0.31	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
PL pltrkr111<$100	Underavg 50¢	$21.48	$22.55	+$1.07	55% 790-658 (1448)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$14.36	$13.77	-$0.58	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47.8¢	$14.81	$13.26	+$0.21	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$36,399.98

Value

$36.0K

PnL

-$350

Record

53%

668-585 (1253)

gmpm2CTR

Over

Invested

$20,160

Value

$20.4K

PnL

+$210

Record

53%

372-326 (698)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$13,301.08

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$138.55

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$6,513.43

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$316.05

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

PwaddlerCTR

Over

Invested

$6,363.07

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$313.44

Record

49%

458-484 (942)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$2,767.89

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$28.83

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,718.58

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$24.74

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Under$2,154.3652¢-$20.72

Over$564.2247.8¢-$4.02

Anon455

Under

Invested

$656.65

Value

$650.34

PnL

-$6.31

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$490.68

Value

$475.09

PnL

-$15.59

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$212.16

Value

$218.93

PnL

+$6.77

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$154.82

Value

$54.62

PnL

+$0.31

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

pltrkr111<$100

Under

Invested

$21.48

Value

$22.55

PnL

+$1.07

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.36

Value

$13.77

PnL

-$0.58

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.81

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.