Spread: Rams (-7.5)

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (90%) · Commanders at 64¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Rams37¢Commanders63¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$584.49

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 63.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rams37%

Commanders64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders9 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares7,464

Combined PnL+$589.19

Rams1 trader

Total Value$7.1

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$4.7

Commanders — 90%Rams — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCommanders 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrCommanders 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Commandersavg 62¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	+$811.56	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
CUTJALENHURTS	Commandersavg 70¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$166.79	51% 6914-6557 (13471)
RN1ARB<$100	Commandersavg 78¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$13.34	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 30¢	$730.8	$889.14	+$158.34
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 78¢	$780	$635	-$145
NM NM-P	Commandersavg 62¢	$402.5	$400	-$2.5	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-P	Commandersavg 62¢	$392.5	$400	+$7.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Commandersavg 71.6¢	$408.94	$362.59	-$46.35	54% 1452-1257 (2709)
65 6512395314597884	Commandersavg 71¢	$142	$127	-$15	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
PA Pan9X<$100	Commandersavg 66.9¢	$29.59	$26.92	+$0.47	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Ramsavg 59¢	$11.8	$7.1	-$4.7	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
TA takeormake<$100	Commandersavg 61¢	$5.96	$6.15	+$0.19	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Commandersavg 62¢	$5.49	$5.6	+$0.11	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

38791873984189

Commanders

Invested

$3,027.46

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$811.56

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

CUTJALENHURTS

Commanders

Invested

$1,796.2

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$166.79

Record

51%

6914-6557 (13471)

RN1ARB<$100

Commanders

Invested

$1,510.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$13.34

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Rams$730.830¢+$158.34

Commanders$78078¢-$145

NM-P

Commanders

Invested

$402.5

Value

$400

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-P

Commanders

Invested

$392.5

Value

$400

PnL

+$7.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Commanders

Invested

$408.94

Value

$362.59

PnL

-$46.35

Record

54%

1452-1257 (2709)

6512395314597884

Commanders

Invested

$142

Value

$127

PnL

-$15

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Pan9X<$100

Commanders

Invested

$29.59

Value

$26.92

PnL

+$0.47

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$11.8

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$4.7

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

takeormake<$100

Commanders

Invested

$5.96

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0.19

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Commanders

Invested

$5.49

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$0.11

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCommanders 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrCommanders 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.