Spread: Rams (-6.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (89%) · Commanders at 77¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Rams24¢Commanders76¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 89%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 76.5¢

+33% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rams24%

Commanders77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders8 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares8,389

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Rams1 trader

Total Value$72.17

Total Shares233

Combined PnL-$7.6

Commanders — 89%Rams — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCommanders 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrCommanders 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCommanders 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Commandersavg 57.8¢	$2.4K	$3.0K	+$642.71	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
JU justaluckydude	Commandersavg 57.1¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	+$241.64	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
PR primm	Commandersavg 58¢	$1.0K	$745	+$165	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
RN1	Commandersavg 57¢	$777	$578.87	+$135.98	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
VeryLucky888	Commandersavg 55¢	$293.62	$303.96	+$10.34	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
65 6512395314597884	Commandersavg 57.5¢	$412.92	$301.29	+$66	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
HO HomeRunHazard	Commandersavg 54¢	$143.7	$150.78	+$7.08	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Ramsavg 45.9¢	$79.78	$72.17	-$7.6	50% 4153-4222 (8375)
PA Pan9X<$100	Commandersavg 57.6¢	$35.86	$15.2	+$2.55	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

Anon455

Commanders

Invested

$2,375.2

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$642.71

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

justaluckydude

Commanders

Invested

$1,472.92

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$241.64

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

primm

Commanders

Invested

$1,000

Value

$745

PnL

+$165

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

RN1

Commanders

Invested

$777

Value

$578.87

PnL

+$135.98

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

VeryLucky888

Commanders

Invested

$293.62

Value

$303.96

PnL

+$10.34

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

6512395314597884

Commanders

Invested

$412.92

Value

$301.29

PnL

+$66

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

HomeRunHazard

Commanders

Invested

$143.7

Value

$150.78

PnL

+$7.08

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

HerdoniaCTR

Rams

Invested

$79.78

Value

$72.17

PnL

-$7.6

Record

50%

4153-4222 (8375)

Pan9X<$100

Commanders

Invested

$35.86

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$2.55

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCommanders 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrCommanders 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCommanders 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.