Spread: Rams (-5.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (45%) · Commanders at 70¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 8

Rams31¢Commanders69¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 45%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.8K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 69.5¢

+39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rams31%

Commanders70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders5 traders

Total Value$18.5K

Total Shares25,884

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Rams6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares6,737

Combined PnL-$72.07

Commanders — 45%Rams — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRams 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrCommanders 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Rams 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Commandersavg 50¢	$7.1K	$10.2K	+$3.1K	53% 680-594 (1274)
IC ic4cream	Commandersavg 50¢	$7.4K	$7.9K	+$495.36	56% 2873-2262 (5135)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Ramsavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$22.39	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Commandersavg 54¢	$726.2	$731.53	+$5.32	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 54¢	$405	$536.25	+$3.75
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 45.3¢	$310.18	$195.28	+$1.57
NM NM-PARB<$100	Commandersavg 54¢	$640	$500	+$90	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 54¢	$270	$357.5	+$87.5
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 46¢	$230	$142.5	+$2.5
38 38791873984189CTR	Ramsavg 45¢	$377.12	$397.28	+$20.15	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Commandersavg 54.9¢	$415.37	$296.99	+$68.71	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
65 6512395314597884	Commandersavg 54¢	$236	$153.26	+$30.5	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Ramsavg 30.8¢	$162.17	$124.08	-$38.09	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 73¢	$69.67	$82.08	+$12.41
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 30.8¢	$92.5	$42	-$50.5
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Ramsavg 40.5¢	$198.05	$117.36	-$80.69	41% 643-941 (1584)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Ramsavg 48.9¢	$34	$31.05	-$2.96	50% 4153-4222 (8375)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Ramsavg 50¢	$86.34	$24.61	-$18.56	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
PA Pan9X<$100	Commandersavg 50¢	$22.18	$16.35	+$4.01	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Ramsavg 27¢	$25.77	$13.36	-$12.41	48% 2117-2339 (4456)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Commanders

Invested

$7,121.12

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

53%

680-594 (1274)

ic4cream

Commanders

Invested

$7,375.36

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$495.36

Record

56%

2873-2262 (5135)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Rams

Invested

$1,285.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$22.39

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

GC-PARB<$100

Commanders

Invested

$726.2

Value

$731.53

PnL

+$5.32

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Both legs:

Commanders$40554¢+$3.75

Rams$310.1845.3¢+$1.57

NM-PARB<$100

Commanders

Invested

$640

Value

$500

PnL

+$90

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Both legs:

Commanders$27054¢+$87.5

Rams$23046¢+$2.5

38791873984189CTR

Rams

Invested

$377.12

Value

$397.28

PnL

+$20.15

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Commanders

Invested

$415.37

Value

$296.99

PnL

+$68.71

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

6512395314597884

Commanders

Invested

$236

Value

$153.26

PnL

+$30.5

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Rams

Invested

$162.17

Value

$124.08

PnL

-$38.09

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Both legs:

Commanders$69.6773¢+$12.41

Rams$92.530.8¢-$50.5

BreakTheBankCTR

Rams

Invested

$198.05

Value

$117.36

PnL

-$80.69

Record

41%

643-941 (1584)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$34

Value

$31.05

PnL

-$2.96

Record

50%

4153-4222 (8375)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$86.34

Value

$24.61

PnL

-$18.56

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Pan9X<$100

Commanders

Invested

$22.18

Value

$16.35

PnL

+$4.01

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

VenusianCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$25.77

Value

$13.36

PnL

-$12.41

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRams 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrCommanders 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Rams 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.