Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 46.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
$2.7K
$544.55
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MD mde4life1986 | Underavg 54¢ | $1.9K | $2.5K | +$637.24 | 3% 2-63 (65) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $115 | $70 | -$45 | 12% 22-166 (188) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 45.6¢ | $112.93 | $69.41 | -$43.52 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $7.91 | $4.82 | -$3.1 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.76 | $1.68 | -$1.08 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
Invested
$1,911.73
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$637.24
Record
3%
2-63 (65)
Invested
$115
Value
$70
PnL
-$45
Record
12%
22-166 (188)
Invested
$112.93
Value
$69.41
PnL
-$43.52
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$7.91
Value
$4.82
PnL
-$3.1
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$1.68
PnL
-$1.08
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.