Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 44.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 68¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$622.39

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 68¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares6,706

Combined PnL+$658.78

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,302

Combined PnL-$36.39

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 63¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$618.3	52% 2703-2515 (5218)
RN1CTR	Overavg 37¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
SA SadSquid54333	Underavg 63¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$112.57	57% 173-133 (306)
PR primm	Underavg 70¢	$704.2	$633.78	-$70.42	59% 1193-837 (2030)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 29.1¢	$263.65	$308.82	+$45.18	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
└ Over leg	Overavg 29.1¢	$143.65	$182.82	+$39.18
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$120	$126	+$6
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 29.9¢	$177.62	$220.16	+$42.54	48% 514-565 (1079)
AN Anon455	Underavg 66¢	$194.12	$185.29	-$8.82	50% 501-511 (1012)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 41¢	$198.01	$178.69	-$19.32	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$192.39	$141.99	-$0	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.7¢	$99.9	$75.85	-$24.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$52.5	$66.14	+$24.05
GA Gaditima<$100	Underavg 59¢	$84.33	$90.05	+$5.72	49% 408-425 (833)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 40.3¢	$107.83	$48.22	-$59.61	50% 665-662 (1327)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 71¢	$9.23	$10.66	+$1.43	52% 420-392 (812)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$1,731.24

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$618.3

Record

52%

2703-2515 (5218)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,833.72

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

SadSquid54333

Under

Invested

$1,576.04

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$112.57

Record

57%

173-133 (306)

primm

Under

Invested

$704.2

Value

$633.78

PnL

-$70.42

Record

59%

1193-837 (2030)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$263.65

Value

$308.82

PnL

+$45.18

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

Both legs:

Over$143.6529.1¢+$39.18

Under$12060¢+$6

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$177.62

Value

$220.16

PnL

+$42.54

Record

48%

514-565 (1079)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$194.12

Value

$185.29

PnL

-$8.82

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$198.01

Value

$178.69

PnL

-$19.32

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

NotJumpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$192.39

Value

$141.99

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

Both legs:

Over$99.948.7¢-$24.05

Under$52.550¢+$24.05

Gaditima<$100

Under

Invested

$84.33

Value

$90.05

PnL

+$5.72

Record

49%

408-425 (833)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$107.83

Value

$48.22

PnL

-$59.61

Record

50%

665-662 (1327)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$9.23

Value

$10.66

PnL

+$1.43

Record

52%

420-392 (812)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.