Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 42.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 29%
$5.6K
$88.61
52¢ → 56.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Underavg 51.6¢ | $3.0K | $3.3K | +$341.43 | 54% 509-435 (944) |
IC ic4creamCTR | Overavg 47.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$136.99 | 0% 1-438 (439) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 48.5¢ | $970 | $469.39 | -$107.86 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
MD mde4life1986 | Underavg 55¢ | $414.62 | $433.46 | +$18.85 | 3% 2-63 (65) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR | Overavg 45.5¢ | $227.5 | $212.5 | -$15 | 12% 22-166 (188) |
RL RLWGCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $103.2 | $91.38 | -$11.83 | 69% 1577-725 (2302) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 42.4¢ | $6.2 | $6.22 | +$0.02 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$2,983.59
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$341.43
Record
54%
509-435 (944)
Invested
$1,231.37
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$136.99
Record
0%
1-438 (439)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$970
Value
$469.39
PnL
-$107.86
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
Invested
$414.62
Value
$433.46
PnL
+$18.85
Record
3%
2-63 (65)
Invested
$227.5
Value
$212.5
PnL
-$15
Record
12%
22-166 (188)
Invested
$103.2
Value
$91.38
PnL
-$11.83
Record
69%
1577-725 (2302)
Invested
$6.2
Value
$6.22
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.