Spread: Rams (-9.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (80%) · Cardinals at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Cardinals
5
Cardinals 80%
$1.2K
$8.13
48.4¢ → 50.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCardinals at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Cardinals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Cardinalsavg 48.3¢ | $700.53 | $709.98 | +$9.45 | 51% 330-315 (645) |
SN SnakeBall | Cardinalsavg 49¢ | $205.11 | $205.11 | -$0 | 49% 220-228 (448) |
SH shovelingdiggingCTR | Ramsavg 51¢ | $200 | $196.08 | -$3.92 | — 1-6 (7) |
38 38791873984189 | Cardinalsavg 48¢ | $118.08 | $120.54 | +$2.46 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Cardinalsavg 49¢ | $4.8 | $4.95 | +$0.15 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$700.53
Value
$709.98
PnL
+$9.45
Record
51%
330-315 (645)
Invested
$205.11
Value
$205.11
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
220-228 (448)
Invested
$200
Value
$196.08
PnL
-$3.92
Record
—
1-6 (7)
Invested
$118.08
Value
$120.54
PnL
+$2.46
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.15
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.