Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Cardinals, while the market favors Rams (55%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Rams (-8.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (60%) · Cardinals at 46¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Cardinals
5
Cardinals 60%
$5.1K
$35.13
46¢ → 45.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCardinals at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Rams 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Cardinals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Cardinalsavg 46¢ | $3.9K | $3.4K | -$24.86 | 48% 3997-4384 (8381) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Ramsavg 52¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$60 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Cardinalsavg 45.6¢ | $58.59 | $58.43 | -$0.16 | 53% 1923-1675 (3598) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Ramsavg 54¢ | $9.72 | $9.81 | +$0.09 | 50% 748-738 (1486) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Cardinalsavg 49¢ | $9.31 | $9.36 | +$0.05 | 50% 2197-2203 (4400) |
Invested
$3,853.53
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$24.86
Record
48%
3997-4384 (8381)
Invested
$1,560
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$60
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$58.59
Value
$58.43
PnL
-$0.16
Record
53%
1923-1675 (3598)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$9.72
Value
$9.81
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
748-738 (1486)
Invested
$9.31
Value
$9.36
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
2197-2203 (4400)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.