Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cardinals, while the market favors Rams (63%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Rams (-6.5)

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (90%) · Cardinals at 38¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Rams63¢Cardinals37¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cardinals

Consensus Traders

Cardinals 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$156.68

Smart Money Entry

39.5¢ → 37.5¢

-5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralCardinals at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Rams 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rams63%

Cardinals38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams1 trader

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,843

Combined PnL+$172.95

Cardinals9 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares7,322

Combined PnL-$16.27

Rams — 10%Cardinals — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Cardinals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCardinals 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cardinals 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Ramsavg 58¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$172.95	59% 1193-836 (2029)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cardinalsavg 36.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$25.68	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
AN Anon455CTR	Cardinalsavg 42¢	$840	$850	+$10	49% 497-511 (1008)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Cardinalsavg 41.9¢	$727.14	$676.99	-$50.15	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Ramsavg 57¢	$198	$200	+$2	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 57¢	$114	$115	+$1
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 42¢	$84	$85	+$1
OD OddstormCTR	Cardinalsavg 38¢	$108.68	$105.82	-$2.86	35% 143-263 (406)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 38¢	$72.34	$70.44	-$1.9	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 38¢	$58.47	$56.93	-$1.54	43% 577-770 (1347)
NO NotJumpCTR	Cardinalsavg 50¢	$105	$47.51	+$0.5	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 38.5¢	$40.09	$27.62	+$4.3	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 39¢	$5.85	$5.55	-$0.3	56% 3926-3105 (7031)

primm

Rams

Invested

$2,229.11

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$172.95

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

38791873984189CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$1,043.15

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$25.68

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Anon455CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$840

Value

$850

PnL

+$10

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$727.14

Value

$676.99

PnL

-$50.15

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Rams

Invested

$198

Value

$200

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Both legs:

Invested

$108.68

Value

$105.82

PnL

-$2.86

Record

35%

143-263 (406)

NM-PCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$72.34

Value

$70.44

PnL

-$1.9

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

GC-PCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$58.47

Value

$56.93

PnL

-$1.54

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

NotJumpCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$105

Value

$47.51

PnL

+$0.5

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$40.09

Value

$27.62

PnL

+$4.3

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$5.85

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

3926-3105 (7031)

Research grade

NeutralCardinals at 38%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Rams 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Cardinals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCardinals 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cardinals 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cardinals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.