Spread: Rams (-16.5)

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (17%) · Rams at 54¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 15

Rams54¢Cardinals46¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.9K

Combined PnL

-$632.99

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralRams at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

2 of 12 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rams54%

Cardinals47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams2 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares26,075

Combined PnL-$507.12

Cardinals10 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares26,576

Combined PnL-$125.87

Rams — 17%Cardinals — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Ramsavg 53¢	$12.5K	$12.6K	+$117.63	42% 624-853 (1477)
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	Cardinalsavg 47¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$63.57	6% 19-307 (326)
CM cm2897CTR	Cardinalsavg 47¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	-$51.25	49% 1253-1297 (2550)
BI biying88888CTR	Cardinalsavg 47¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10.81	44% 248-322 (570)
RN1	Ramsavg 53¢	$1.4K	$726.74	-$624.74	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
AN Anon455CTR	Cardinalsavg 46¢	$296.82	$300.04	+$3.23	50% 501-511 (1012)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Ramsavg 53¢	$197.94	$199.94	+$2	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 53¢	$105.99	$106.99	+$1
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 46¢	$91.95	$92.95	+$1
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 47¢	$88.36	$87.42	-$0.94	43% 248-331 (579)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 47¢	$79.29	$78.45	-$0.84	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 47¢	$79.29	$78.45	-$0.84	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 47¢	$52.86	$52.3	-$0.56	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 47¢	$52.86	$52.3	-$0.56	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 46¢	$25.56	$25.83	+$0.28	49% 2903-2977 (5880)

BreakTheBank

Rams

Invested

$12,468.29

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$117.63

Record

42%

624-853 (1477)

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$5,975.43

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$63.57

Record

19-307 (326)

cm2897CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$4,817.5

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$51.25

Record

49%

1253-1297 (2550)

biying88888CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$1,015.67

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.81

Record

44%

248-322 (570)

RN1

Rams

Invested

$1,351.49

Value

$726.74

PnL

-$624.74

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

Anon455CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$296.82

Value

$300.04

PnL

+$3.23

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Rams

Invested

$197.94

Value

$199.94

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

Both legs:

Rams$105.9953¢+$1

Cardinals$91.9546¢+$1

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$88.36

Value

$87.42

PnL

-$0.94

Record

43%

248-331 (579)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$79.29

Value

$78.45

PnL

-$0.84

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

LimousinCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$79.29

Value

$78.45

PnL

-$0.84

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$52.86

Value

$52.3

PnL

-$0.56

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

VenusianCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$52.86

Value

$52.3

PnL

-$0.56

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$25.56

Value

$25.83

PnL

+$0.28

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Rams

2 of 12 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.