Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Broncos, while the market favors Chiefs (74%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Broncos (80%) · Broncos at 26¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 1

Chiefs74¢Broncos26¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Broncos

Consensus Traders

Broncos 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$736.95

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 26¢

-57% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBroncos at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Chiefs 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs74%

Broncos26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Broncos8 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares19,735

Combined PnL+$721.29

Chiefs2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,191

Combined PnL+$15.65

Broncos — 80%Chiefs — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Broncosavg 60¢	$9.0K	$9.6K	+$602.73	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Broncosavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$121.96	53% 453-396 (849)
BR BreakTheBank	Chiefsavg 37¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$15.93	43% 561-738 (1299)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Broncosavg 62¢	$732.22	$738.13	+$5.9	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
0xheavy888CTR	Broncosavg 63¢	$708.75	$703.13	-$5.63	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Chiefsavg 49¢	$316.94	$305.25	-$11.69	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 49¢	$158.76	$157.14	-$1.62
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 55¢	$158.18	$148.11	-$10.07
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Broncosavg 68¢	$89.46	$76.08	-$13.38	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 68¢	$57.16	$46.65	-$10.51
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 48.8¢	$32.3	$29.43	-$2.87
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Broncosavg 56.8¢	$59.96	$57.55	-$2.41	50% 3948-3932 (7880)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Broncosavg 50¢	$49.14	$47.67	-$1.47	51% 6082-5802 (11884)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Broncosavg 54¢	$14.58	$16.56	+$1.98	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Broncosavg 46.4¢	$11.14	$9.36	-$1.78	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Chiefsavg 43¢	$2.15	$1.88	-$0.27	59% 30682-21402 (52084)

takeormakeCTR

Broncos

Invested

$8,983.85

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$602.73

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Broncos

Invested

$1,263.92

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$121.96

Record

53%

453-396 (849)

BreakTheBank

Chiefs

Invested

$1,178.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$15.93

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Broncos

Invested

$732.22

Value

$738.13

PnL

+$5.9

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

0xheavy888CTR

Broncos

Invested

$708.75

Value

$703.13

PnL

-$5.63

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$316.94

Value

$305.25

PnL

-$11.69

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Chiefs$158.7649¢-$1.62

Broncos$158.1855¢-$10.07

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$89.46

Value

$76.08

PnL

-$13.38

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Both legs:

Broncos$57.1668¢-$10.51

Chiefs$32.348.8¢-$2.87

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$59.96

Value

$57.55

PnL

-$2.41

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$49.14

Value

$47.67

PnL

-$1.47

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$14.58

Value

$16.56

PnL

+$1.98

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$11.14

Value

$9.36

PnL

-$1.78

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.27

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

Research grade

AvoidBroncos at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Chiefs 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Broncos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.