Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Broncos (100%) · Broncos at 55¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Broncos
2
Broncos 100%
2 arb excluded
$20.4K
$205.11
53¢ → 54.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBroncos at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Broncosavg 53¢ | $13.0K | $13.1K | +$131.15 | 54% 17334-14553 (31887) |
| └ Broncos leg | Broncosavg 53¢ | $7.0K | $7.2K | +$196.92 | |
| └ Chiefs leg | Chiefsavg 46¢ | $6.1K | $6.0K | -$65.77 | |
LU LuckyLoo | Broncosavg 53¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | +$130.98 | 49% 12972-13528 (26500) |
HE Herdonia | Broncosavg 53¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$74.13 | 54% 3402-2948 (6350) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Broncosavg 53¢ | $48.3 | $48.3 | +$0.43 | 57% 29194-21587 (50781) |
| └ Broncos leg | Broncosavg 53¢ | $24.38 | $24.38 | +$0.69 | |
| └ Chiefs leg | Chiefsavg 46¢ | $23.92 | $23.92 | -$0.26 |
Invested
$13,009
Value
$13.1K
PnL
+$131.15
Record
54%
17334-14553 (31887)
Both legs:
Invested
$4,627.96
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$130.98
Record
49%
12972-13528 (26500)
Invested
$2,619.37
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$74.13
Record
54%
3402-2948 (6350)
Invested
$48.3
Value
$48.3
PnL
+$0.43
Record
57%
29194-21587 (50781)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.