Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)

7 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (32%) · Chiefs at 69¢ · $251K held · ended Nov 1

Chiefs69¢Broncos31¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 32%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$251.2K

Combined PnL

$-26.6K

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 68.5¢

+46% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

7 of 22 top traders (32%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs69%

Broncos32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs7 traders

Total Value$162.1K

Total Shares351,876

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Broncos15 traders

Total Value$83.3K

Total Shares200,921

Combined PnL$-23.2K

Chiefs — 32%Broncos — 68%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Chiefsavg 47¢	$155.5K	$152.3K	$-3.2K	43% 561-738 (1299)
SI sinasinnerCTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$53.0K	$31.5K	$-21.5K	48% 28-30 (58)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$26.5K	$26.3K	-$250	53% 615-541 (1156)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$6.9K	$6.8K	-$64.93	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	-$63.38	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
0X 0x0A77exmmARB<$100	Broncosavg 53¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$52.03	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 53¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$29.48
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 46¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$81.51
VeryLucky888CTR	Broncosavg 52.7¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$126.16	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
CA cavvvy	Chiefsavg 46¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$100	— 11-7 (18)
JU justaluckydude	Chiefsavg 53.2¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$339.45	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$20	58% 4068-2891 (6959)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Broncosavg 52.9¢	$3.4K	$2.0K	$-1.4K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
DO DolphinBaller	Chiefsavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$30	47% 100-113 (213)
AN Anon455CTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Broncosavg 59¢	$750	$750	+$0	46% 367-427 (794)
HE Herdonia	Chiefsavg 46.4¢	$440.57	$445.85	+$5.29	54% 3405-2950 (6355)
heyboy800CTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$300	$297.17	-$2.83	61% 971-608 (1579)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Broncosavg 49.6¢	$258.56	$234.66	-$23.9	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Broncosavg 53¢	$104.94	$103.95	-$0.99	50% 3948-3932 (7880)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Chiefsavg 47¢	$91.95	$91.95	+$0.98	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Broncosavg 45.8¢	$78.35	$79.8	+$1.46	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 45.8¢	$42.46	$42.19	-$0.27
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 52¢	$35.89	$37.61	+$1.73
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Broncosavg 53¢	$59.36	$58.8	-$0.56	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Broncosavg 51.3¢	$20.1	$19.5	-$0.6	51% 1532-1483 (3015)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Broncosavg 56¢	$8.93	$8.05	-$0.88	51% 6082-5802 (11884)
GH ghorrock<$100	Chiefsavg 46¢	$6.61	$6.54	-$0.07	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

BreakTheBank

Chiefs

Invested

$155,487.3

Value

$152.3K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

sinasinnerCTR

Broncos

Invested

$53,021.7

Value

$31.5K

PnL

$-21.5K

Record

48%

28-30 (58)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Broncos

Invested

$26,500

Value

$26.3K

PnL

-$250

Record

53%

615-541 (1156)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Broncos

Invested

$6,883

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$64.93

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

LuckyLooCTR

Broncos

Invested

$6,718.28

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$63.38

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

0x0A77exmmARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$5,624.52

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$52.03

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

Both legs:

Broncos$3,124.8853¢-$29.48

Chiefs$2,499.6446¢+$81.51

VeryLucky888CTR

Broncos

Invested

$5,305.27

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$126.16

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

cavvvy

Chiefs

Invested

$4,600

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$100

Record

—

11-7 (18)

justaluckydude

Chiefs

Invested

$3,513.55

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$339.45

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Bagwell306CTR

Broncos

Invested

$2,120

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$20

Record

58%

4068-2891 (6959)

UpTheBluesCTR

Broncos

Invested

$3,391.19

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

DolphinBaller

Chiefs

Invested

$1,380

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$30

Record

47%

100-113 (213)

Anon455CTR

Broncos

Invested

$1,060

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Broncos

Invested

$750

Value

$750

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

367-427 (794)

Herdonia

Chiefs

Invested

$440.57

Value

$445.85

PnL

+$5.29

Record

54%

3405-2950 (6355)

heyboy800CTR

Broncos

Invested

$300

Value

$297.17

PnL

-$2.83

Record

61%

971-608 (1579)

topdogbigboiCTR

Broncos

Invested

$258.56

Value

$234.66

PnL

-$23.9

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Broncos

Invested

$104.94

Value

$103.95

PnL

-$0.99

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$91.95

Value

$91.95

PnL

+$0.98

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

takeormakeARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$78.35

Value

$79.8

PnL

+$1.46

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

Both legs:

Broncos$42.4645.8¢-$0.27

Chiefs$35.8952¢+$1.73

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$59.36

Value

$58.8

PnL

-$0.56

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$20.1

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$0.6

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$8.93

Value

$8.05

PnL

-$0.88

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

ghorrock<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$6.61

Value

$6.54

PnL

-$0.07

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

7 of 22 top traders (32%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.