Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Broncos, while the market favors Chiefs (52%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Chiefs vs. Broncos
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Broncos (33%) · Broncos at 49¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Broncos
6
Broncos 33%
$3.7K
$6.59
48¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBroncos at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Chiefs 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR | Broncosavg 48¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$21.12 | 54% 604-520 (1124) |
HE Herdonia | Chiefsavg 52¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$15.01 | 54% 3357-2905 (6262) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Chiefsavg 52¢ | $52.68 | $51.67 | +$0.51 | 65% 1708-928 (2636) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Chiefsavg 51¢ | $41.41 | $41.82 | +$0.41 | 74% 6674-2397 (9071) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Chiefsavg 52¢ | $24.44 | $24.21 | -$0.23 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Broncosavg 48.1¢ | $14.74 | $14.54 | -$0.2 | 39% 419-667 (1086) |
Invested
$2,027.17
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$21.12
Record
54%
604-520 (1124)
Invested
$1,561.38
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$15.01
Record
54%
3357-2905 (6262)
Invested
$52.68
Value
$51.67
PnL
+$0.51
Record
65%
1708-928 (2636)
Invested
$41.41
Value
$41.82
PnL
+$0.41
Record
74%
6674-2397 (9071)
Invested
$24.44
Value
$24.21
PnL
-$0.23
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$14.74
Value
$14.54
PnL
-$0.2
Record
39%
419-667 (1086)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.