Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Chiefs vs. Falcons: O/U 48.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (58%) · Over at 48¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 15

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 58%

Total Value

$34.0K

Combined PnL

$368.49

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 47.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares46,946

Combined PnL+$420.15

Under5 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares22,215

Combined PnL-$51.66

Over — 58%Under — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$18.2K	$18.6K	+$396.23	2% 7-336 (343)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 53¢	$8.0K	$7.9K	-$75	52% 2694-2508 (5202)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$29.74	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 47¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$1.3	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 46¢	$999.99	$1.0K	+$21.74	59% 1182-828 (2010)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 47¢	$940	$940	+$0	49% 482-499 (981)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 53¢	$423.49	$419.52	-$3.97	30% 489-1134 (1623)
nigiri99	Underavg 53¢	$239.03	$236.78	-$2.25	50% 747-737 (1484)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$37.7	$38.52	+$0.82	56% 181-144 (325)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$13.63	$13.63	+$0	52% 419-387 (806)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 53¢	$9.07	$8.9	-$0.17	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.76	$2.82	+$0.06	50% 2190-2198 (4388)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Over

Invested

$18,231.64

Value

$18.6K

PnL

+$396.23

Record

7-336 (343)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$7,950

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$75

Record

52%

2694-2508 (5202)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,152.56

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$29.74

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,633.24

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.3

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$21.74

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$940

Value

$940

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

482-499 (981)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$423.49

Value

$419.52

PnL

-$3.97

Record

30%

489-1134 (1623)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$239.03

Value

$236.78

PnL

-$2.25

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.7

Value

$38.52

PnL

+$0.82

Record

56%

181-144 (325)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.63

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

419-387 (806)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$9.07

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$0.17

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.